Al-Qaida and the Islamic State (IS) have issued calls for their followers to target Israeli, American, and Jewish interests, heightening the potential for new acts of terrorism in either the Middle East or the West. In a series of statements made over the past two weeks, al-Qaida affiliates expressed support for Hamas' actions, particularly its attacks on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,400 individuals, mainly civilians.

The Israeli military offensive in Gaza, which has led to a humanitarian crisis and a death toll of over 4,500 people according to medical authorities in the Hamas-controlled area, has sparked outrage within the Islamic world. This situation is seen as an opportunity for extremist groups, according to experts.

A recent statement from al-Shabaab, al-Qaida’s powerful affiliate in Somalia, said the conflict in the Middle East was not just “the battle of the Islamic factions in the land of Palestine in particular, but rather the battle of the entire Muslim Ummah.”

It added: “Muslims must gather and offer everything they can to support the mujahideen against the Jews and their hypocritical infidel allies. The strength of this nation lies in the strength of its jihadist fronts.”

Other al-Qaida affiliates in the Indian subcontinent, Yemen and Syria issued similar statements.

Al-Qaida's branches in North Africa and West Africa praised the Hamas attacks on Israel and called for further violence against Jews, according to the Long War Journal, a news website specializing in Islamic extremist violence.

According to the Long War Journal, a news website specialising in Islamic extremist violence, al-Qaida’s branches in north Africa and west Africa praised the Hamas attacks on Israel and called for further violence against Jews.

“We congratulate your actions and urge you to continue, biting your teeth with patience on the path of jihad,” the groups said in a statement. “They [the Palestinians] attacked the Jews … wanting to lift the sword of humiliation from their necks.”

The calls to violence will further raise concerns among western officials of a new wave of extremist violence. Last week the heads of MI5 and FBI said Jewish communities and other groups may face danger from lone actors, Iran or militants. Even before the war in Gaza, European authorities have been warning of rise in Islamist terrorism on the continent.

Ken McCallum, the director general of Britain’s domestic spy agency, MI5, said there was a risk that “self-initiated” individuals who might have been radicalised online may respond in “spontaneous or unpredictable ways” in the UK after the terrorist attacks on Israel and what could become a drawn-out conflict.
 

In May, Dutch security services warned that the terrorist threat from Islamic State to Europe had increased. The same month, the French interior minister said the risk of Islamist terrorism was rising again and that his own country was being targeted, as well as its neighbours.

Earlier this month, a teacher was stabbed to death in France by an attacker who had sworn allegiance to IS and two Swedish football fans were shot in Brussels by a 45-year-old known to security services and suspected of radical sympathies.

“Right now it’s much more likely that you would see individuals respond to these kind of calls but as the war goes on you could see more organised plots being put together. All these groups are trying to exploit the conflict to mobilise support, both locally and internationally,” said Caleb Weiss, senior analyst at the Bridgeway Foundation.

Al-Qaida has previously been critical of organisations such as Hamas and Hezbollah, and has no significant presence either in Gaza or the West Bank. Though they share some objectives and ideas, there are very significant ideological differences. Al-Qaida has been critical of both group’s involvement in administration and government, for example.

In a statement, IS offered advice on “practical steps to fight the Jews” but criticised Hamas for its links to Iran and narrow focus on Israel. The group called for attacks against Jews everywhere, but specifically in North America and in Europe.

There is bitter rivalry between IS and al-Qaida, leading to competing rhetoric from both as they seek to attract recruits. Both have been significantly weakened over recent years. IS lost its so-called caliphate in Syria and Iraq, while al-Qaida’s veteran leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed in a drone strike last year.